Effects of COVID-19 risk controls on the Global Supply Chain

Ketan Gupta, Nasmin Jiwani

Abstract


Countries have imposed rigorous restrictions on travel and in-person commerce to halt the coronavirus illness of 2019 (COVID-19) from spreading. Using the most recent paradigm for modelling global commerce, we examine the consequences of a variety of imaginary lockdown scenarios on the supply chain in this article. We discover that the number of nations applying limitations has a significant impact on supply-chain losses associated with the first COVID-19 lockdowns and that losses are more sensitive to the length of a shutdown than its strictness. Longer confinement that can completely wipe out the illness, however, comes with a lesser loss than a shorter one. Lockdowns that are tougher, shorter, and more frequently reduce total losses. If it prevents the need for additional lockdowns, a "go-slow" strategy for releasing limitations may decrease total damages. Whatever the plan, the intricate nature of global supply networks will amplify losses beyond COVID-19's immediate consequences. Therefore, preventing pandemics is a public benefit that needs cooperation from all countries and assistance from those with weaker capacities.

Full Text:

PDF

References


Li, Q. et al. Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia. N. Engl. J. Med. 382, 1199–1207 (2020).

Remuzzi, A. & Remuzzi, G. COVID-19 and Italy: what next? Lancet 395, 1225–1228 (2020).

Anderson, R. M., Heesterbeek, H., Klinkenberg, D. & Hollingsworth, T. D. How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic? Lancet 395, 931–934 (2020).

Hellewell, J. et al. Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts. Lancet Glob. Health 8, E488–E496 (2020).

Shim, E., Tariq, A., Choi, W., Lee, Y. & Chowell, G. Transmission potential and severity of COVID-19 in South Korea. Int. J. Infect. Dis. 93, 339–344 (2020).

Wells, C. R. et al. Impact of international travel and border control measures on the global spread of the novel 2019 coronavirus outbreak. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 117, 7504–7509 (2020).

Inoue, H. & Todo, Y. Firm-level propagation of shocks through supply-chain networks. Nat. Sustain. 2, 841–847 (2019).

Zeng, Z., Guan, D., Steele, A. E., Xia, Y. & Mendoza-Tinoco, D. Flood footprint assessment: a new approach for flood-induced indirect economic impact measurement and post-flood recovery. J. Hydrol. 579, 124204 (2019).

Hallegatte, S. Modeling the role of inventories and heterogeneity in the assessment of the economic costs of natural disasters. Risk Anal. 34, 152–167 (2014).


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.